Politics
are so different in Europe and in the U.S. that analogies usually look
contrived. Yet the demographics of those who support right-wing
populists are strikingly similar on both sides of the Atlantic. And
these demographics are likely to be the reason why the populist right,
which appears to be on the rise, is actually peaking. If it doesn't win
any major electoral victories in the next few years, it will have to
slink off to the fringe. Last
Sunday, Norbert Hofer of the anti-immigrant Freedom Party lost the
Austrian presidential election despite winning the first round and
leading in the polls up to election day. He ran again a generic
progressive candidate, Alexander van der Bellen, who was technically and
independent but was backed by the Green Party. By election day,
he was also running against everyone else who didn't want the far
right, Hofer rejects, to win. The demographics of his voters in the
run-off with van der Bellen are similar to those of Donald Trump's in
the race against Hillary Clinton:
Losing Demographics
Share of support for right-wing populist candidates in demographic groups, percent, May 2016
Sources: ORF.at/ISA/SORA, ATV, ABC News/Washington Post polls
*The Austrian education system directs fewer students
toward college than the U.S. one. The Matura is the diploma
required to apply to universities
Both Trump and Hofer command majorities among men but
not among women, among less-educated voters but not among more-educated
ones, and both do better with the over-50 crowd than with millennials.
Based on the Austrian election results and on recent U.S. polling data, Trump and Hofer do well in rural areas and small towns, but they lose in the big cities.
Speculating
why nativist, politically incorrect politicians appeal to roughly the
same demographic base everywhere is fruitless. The reasons could be
economic (the effects of globalization and the technological
revolution), purely cultural (some areas are historically more
xenophobic than others) or attitudinal (women tend to be less inclined toward
simple, hard-line solutions than men do). Whatever the underlying
cause, the demographics suggest that if the right-wing populists don't
win now, it will be too late.
Both in the U.S. and in Europe, women make up more than half of the total population. In the U.S., women are also more likely to turn out to vote, while in Europe gender participation rates vary from one country to another.
Millennials
are taking over as the biggest voting generation both in the U.S. and
in Europe, though at the moment they are underrepresented at the polls.
On both sides of the Atlantic, urbanization is the long-term trend. Core cities are growing faster than
rural areas and suburbs, and this tendency will continue at least until
2050, according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social
Affairs.
In Europe, the college enrollment rare is growing steadily. In the U.S., it took a dip in recent years, but is far higher than in the European Union.
A
political philosophy and style that fails to impress the faster-growing
demographic but endears itself to the slower-growing ones isn't exactly
doomed. At least in Europe, with its multi-party systems, charismatic
right-wing populists will be around for a long time, winning some
representation for their voters. And mainstream parties have grown so
sclerotic that their natural voters are turned off. But winning big --
taking over a country's government -- will get harder and harder as
these trends progress. Now, surprises are still possible: Hofer only
lost by 31,000 votes, and some polls predict a close race between Trump
and Clinton.
Of course, some young, urban, female,
college-educated voters do support politicians such as Trump and Hofer
or else they wouldn't be as close to the political summit in their
respective countries. Yet these outliers on the right are like poker
players bleeding chips: Each time the cards are dealt, they have less
power to play aggressively and win big. In 2020, they will be a step
further from victory than they are today, and in 2024, yet another step
further.
The populist left
doesn't have that problem. Politicians like Bernie Sanders and Jeremy
Corbyn in Britain appeal to young people, women, college graduates and
urbanites. And while Picketty may not be for everyone, they don't have
the xenophobic baggage that alienates some mainstream voters who are in
the market for a party to support.
Just like mainstream parties,
which appear to have lost much of their political identity in decades of
running their countries, populists on the right need to find ways to
fit their message to the changing demographics. It's not easy to do,
though, without turning into one of those "establishment" parties that
voters have been rejecting.
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